Choicenewsonline Your Choice Is Here
In an analysis of Ghana’s upcoming December 7, 2024, general elections, Prof. Smart Sarpong has predicted a closely contested presidential race that could lead to a run-off. However, his research also highlights a possible path for Vice President Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia to secure victory in the first round if certain conditions align in his favor.
The study, dubbed “Evidence from Science and Data,” forecasts that Dr. Bawumia, the New Patriotic Party (NPP) presidential candidate, could secure 49.1% of the votes, while his closest contender, former President John Dramani Mahama of the National Democratic Congress (NDC), might garner 45.8%. Notably, Nana Kwame Bediako, alias Freedom Jacob Caesar, a new entrant in the presidential race, is projected to claim 2.2%, edging out veteran politician Alan Kyerematen, who polled at 1.2%.
Key Insights from the Research
The research sampled 99,355 respondents from 4,272 communities across the country, representing Ghana’s total population of 18,807,954. The findings suggest that the 2024 elections will be one of the most competitive in the Fourth Republic, with voter turnout predicted to hit 81.4%.
Speaking at a press conference on Thursday, November 21, 2024, at the Erata Hotel, Prof. Sarpong explained:
“As of November 16, 2024 (four weeks to the elections), the NPP’s Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia led with 49.1%, followed by the NDC’s Mr. John Dramani Mahama with 45.8%. Nana Kwame Bediako scored 2.2%, while Mr. John Alan Kyerematen managed 1.2%. All other candidates combined obtained 1.7%.”
Despite the predicted lead for Dr. Bawumia, Prof. Sarpong emphasized that a first-round victory for either of the two leading candidates remains uncertain, given the slim margins and potential influence of undecided voters.
Parliamentary Outlook
In the parliamentary elections, Prof. Sarpong’s analysis projects 128 seats for the NPP, with an additional potential of 41, compared to 92 seats for the NDC, with a possible gain of 15 seats. This projection, if realized, could have significant implications for governance in the next parliamentary session.
Regional Dynamics
The report identified key regional strongholds for the two major candidates:
Regions favoring Dr. Bawumia (NPP): Ahafo, Ashanti, Bono, Central, Eastern, North East, and Western.
Regions favoring John Mahama (NDC): Bono East, Greater Accra, Northern, Oti, Savanna, Upper East, Upper West, Volta, and Western North.
These regional dynamics underscore the importance of voter mobilization in swing areas to tilt the balance in favor of either candidate.
Challenges to the Predicted Outcome
Prof. Sarpong’s forecast of a first-round victory for Dr. Bawumia hinges on the NPP’s ability to consolidate its base and win over undecided voters in critical regions. Conversely, the NDC’s prospects for a run-off or potential upset rely on its ability to sustain momentum in its traditional strongholds while making inroads in NPP-dominated areas.
A New Entrant in the Presidential Race
One notable finding in the research is the 2.2% projected for Nana Kwame Bediako, a political newcomer. His performance surpasses that of Alan Kyerematen, a veteran politician who left the NPP to run as an independent candidate. This indicates a growing appetite among voters for alternative leadership options.
Conclusion
While Prof. Smart Sarpong’s analysis provides a data-driven glimpse into the possible outcomes of the 2024 elections, the dynamics of Ghana’s electorate could still surprise political observers. With four weeks to go, the political landscape remains fluid, and strategies employed by the leading candidates in the final stretch could prove decisive.
The question of whether Ghana will witness a first-round victory or head into a run-off remains to be answered, but the stakes for all parties involved could not be higher.
